In Short : It’s important to remember that meeting carbon emissions reduction goals is a complex task that requires a combination of policy changes, technological advancements, and individual actions. By taking a holistic approach and implementing these strategies, the United States can make significant progress in mitigating climate change and building a sustainable future.
In Detail : Last year, Congress passed the most ambitious climate bill ever enacted, the Inflation Reduction Act. The legislation committed nearly $400 billion to support, among other things, wind and solar power, battery storage, electric vehicles, and other clean energy technologies that will make a significant dent in US heat-trapping emissions. However, several analyses—including a recent one by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS)—have concluded that the IRA, even when coupled with the bipartisan infrastructure act and other federal and state climate policies, will not be enough to meet US carbon emission reduction goals.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, the United States voluntarily pledged to reduce its global warming emissions at least 50 percent below their 2005 levels by the end of this decade and reach net-zero emissions no later than 2050. UCS found that the IRA more than doubles the current rate of annual US emissions reductions to roughly 3 percent through 2030. But to lower emissions by 50 percent below 2005 levels by 2030, the United States would have to cut emissions by more than 5 percent a year.
How is that going to happen?
An interdisciplinary team of UCS experts put their heads together to answer that question. The result: a new report, Accelerating Clean Energy Ambition, showing that there are viable, cost-effective ways for the United States to meet its emissions reduction targets. Their report, however, comes with a warning. “Without decisive action within this decade to accelerate US and global ambition, the Paris Agreement temperature goals could slip from our grasp.”
That would be potentially disastrous.
I recently sat down virtually with one of the report’s lead authors, Steve Clemmer, director of energy research for the UCS Climate and Energy program, to ask him some questions about his team’s findings. Below is an abridged version of our conversation.
EN: As I mentioned in my introduction, a number of analyses have found that the IRA and other current policies will not be enough for the United States to meet its 2030 emission reduction goals. What exactly will the IRA accomplish, and where does it fall short?
SC: Our analysis shows that effective implementation of the IRA, the infrastructure act, and state policies would enable the United States to make significant progress toward achieving its near-term climate goals and yield substantial economic and public health benefits at the same time. Taken together, these federal and state initiatives could help cut total US heat-trapping emissions 34 percent below 2005 levels in 2030 and 53 percent by 2035, which would fall short of our 2030 targets but meet them a few years later.
The IRA will stimulate most of the near-term private investment in clean energy and related infrastructure to decarbonize the US economy, spurring more than a trillion dollars in capital investments through 2035. It also will save US consumers money because they will spend less on fossil fuels. Combining those savings with IRA incentives, which reduce the cost of investing in clean energy technologies, will lower overall US energy expenditures by 3 percent in 2030 and save US households and businesses nearly $89 billion in that one year alone.
IRA clean energy investments also will protect public health by cutting key toxic air pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide, by more than 50 percent by 2050, and drastically reduce fine particulate matter, which will save hundreds of billions of dollars in 2035 alone from avoided premature deaths.
Even with all that, we will still need additional policies and investments across all sectors just to close the near-term gap of slashing emissions in half by 2030, let alone close the much larger long-term gap to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
Our analysis found there are practical pathways for the United States to meet its near-term and long-term climate targets, but it will require immediate action that dramatically ramps up the deployment of clean energy technologies and related infrastructure. Doing so would generate even greater benefits, including a $100-billion reduction in consumer energy costs in 2030 and, by 2050, as much as $800 billion in public health benefits and nearly $1.3 trillion in avoided climate change-related damages.
EN: UCS’s analysis looks at various ways the United States could meet its climate targets. What are the main solutions?
SC: There are three primary solutions that can get us most of the way. First, decarbonizing the electricity sector mainly with wind and solar to replace coal and fossil gas. Second, replacing fossil fuels with clean electricity in the transportation, building, and industrial sectors. And third, increasing energy efficiency and lowering overall energy demand in those sectors.
Many of these solutions, which are proven and commercially available, can lower energy bills and be readily ramped up to achieve US climate targets. Transitioning to alternative, zero-carbon fuels in the transportation sector would be another important strategy for reducing emissions, but those fuels are at an earlier stage of development.
Decarbonizing the power sector is the most important near-term strategy to meet US climate goals. It is also critical for enabling longer-term initiatives that replace fossil fuels and reduce emissions in other sectors. The IRA and current state policies recognize this fact by including incentives for consumers and businesses to purchase electric vehicles and replace inefficient gas, oil, and propane boilers, furnaces, and water heaters with highly efficient electric heat pumps, which also provide cooling in the summer. As a result of these and other strategies we explored in our report, we found that electricity use as a share of US energy demand would jump from 21 percent in 2021 to 53 percent in 2050 under the two net-zero scenarios we analyzed.