In Short : As the international community comes together for the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (Cop28), understanding some key terms and concepts related to climate action is essential. In this jargonbuster, we’ll explore the meanings behind three important terms: carbon offsetting, Kyoto Protocol, and NDCs.
In Detail : As global leaders ready for the climate meeting in the UAE, here are some of the most common terms and what they mean
Cop28 will be the 28th conference of the parties to the UN framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC), the parent treaty to the 2015 Paris agreement. It takes place in the United Arab Emirates, a major oil-producing country, against a backdrop of record high temperatures, described by one scientist as “gobsmackingly bananas”; a fresh high for annual greenhouse gas emissions; and rising geopolitical tensions. More than 70,000 people are expected to attend, with the likelihood of a record number of businesses represented – including large numbers of fossil fuel executives.
Delegates will be expected to debate a phaseout – or perhaps only a phasedown – of fossil fuels; the future of finance for the most vulnerable countries stricken by climate damage, known as loss and damage; the global stocktake, an assessment of progress under the Paris agreement; how to reduce methane emissions; and help for poor countries to adapt to the impacts of extreme weather. There will also be special days focusing on food and health.
UNFCCC
The UN framework convention on climate change, signed in 1992 at the Rio Earth summit, binds all of the world’s countries – bar a handful of failed states – to “avoid dangerous climate change”. However, it did not set out in detail how to do so.
Kyoto protocol
The first attempt to turn the UNFCCC’s resolution into action was the 1997 Kyoto protocol, which set targets on emissions cuts for each developed country, stipulating a 5% cut in global greenhouse gases overall by 2012. Developing countries, including China, were allowed to increase their emissions. However, the protocol immediately ran into trouble when the US, which signed the treaty under Bill Clinton, could not ratify it owing to opposition in Congress.
The protocol eventually came into force without US backing in 2005,
but by then was largely irrelevant, so countries set out on the long journey to a new treaty that would fulfil the UNFCCC aims, resulting in the 2015 Paris accord.
The Paris agreement
Forged at a historic summit in December 2015, this marked the first time developed and developing countries agreed to limit greenhouse gases in order to stay within set temperature limits. The main goal of the Paris agreement is to limit global heating to “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels, while “pursuing efforts” to stay within the lower, safer threshold of 1.5C. Countries set out targets to stay within those limits, in the form of nationally determined contributions (NDCs).
NDCs
Nationally determined contributions are national plans containing targets on emissions cuts, usually pegged to 2030, and some details on how they will be met. They form the heart of the Paris agreement. In the negotiations leading up to the Paris summit, countries were reluctant to accept “top-down” targets such as those contained in the Kyoto protocol, which set a global goal for emissions reduction then divided up the cuts needed among the developed countries. Instead, they opted for each government offering the emissions reductions it thought feasible.
However, this resulted in a set of NDCs submitted at Paris that would result in catastrophic heating of more than 3C. So the Paris agreement contains a “ratchet” mechanism by which every five years countries must return to the negotiating table with fresh commitments, to bring emissions in line with the overarching temperature targets.
At Cop26 in Glasgow, countries agreed to hasten the ratchet, asking for new pledges every year instead of just every five years.
1.5C
The Paris agreement contains two key goals, of limiting global heating to “well below” 2C, while “pursuing efforts” to limit temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. These temperature goals have their roots in reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The 2007 IPCC fourth assessment report suggested the world was likely to warm by at least 1.8C, even if measures were taken to limit emissions, and by 4C if emissions went untrammelled. Keeping warming to about 2C was regarded as the outer limit of safety, beyond which the impacts of climate breakdown – heatwaves, droughts, floods, sea level rises, fiercer storms and other extreme weather – would become catastrophic and irreversible.
Some big emitters, including China, argued 2C was the only realistic limit and opting for a lower goal would be economically difficult. However, small island states pointed to science showing they were likely to be inundated by sea-level rises and storm surges at warming above 1.5C. The conflict was eventually resolved in the compromise of two goals at Paris. A further IPCC report in 2018 found extreme weather and severe impacts from even a 1.5C rise, so for Cop26 the UK hosts made “keeping 1.5C alive” the core aim of the conference.
Net zero
This basically means reducing greenhouse gas emissions as far as possible and then offsetting any remaining irreducible emissions – for instance, from industrial processes that emit CO2, or sectors such as aviation where alternative technologies are not available – by fostering carbon sinks, such as forests. The concept has come under attack from campaigners who argue that some companies and governments are using net zero as a fig leaf by assuming they can offset emissions rather than reducing them.
Loss and damage
One of the most contentious issues at Cop28 will be loss and damage. This refers to the most devastating ravages of extreme weather, so great that no amount of adaptation can help with them. Examples include hurricanes and typhoons, the devastating floods that hit Pakistan in summer 2022, or the droughts afflicting swathes of Africa.
Recovery from such devastation can take years, if it is ever achieved, and the infrastructure of developing countries, services such as health and education, and their chances of improving people’s circumstances can suffer permanent damage. The world’s poorest countries, which have done least to cause the climate crisis, are most at risk.
In the past, some experts characterised loss and damage as a form of compensation or reparations for poor countries. However, this was unacceptable to developed and large developing countries, which refused to sign legal agreements potentially leaving them liable for unlimited future costs. So the discussion has moved on to loss and damage as a form of rescue and rehabilitation for the countries suffering most, differing from climate finance in that it does not apply to emissions cuts, and addresses broader social and development issues as well as the immediate impacts of extreme weather.
Global stocktake
Under the Paris agreement, nations are required to measure the progress made towards the emissions cuts needed to ensure the world stays within the temperature limits of the treaty. This five-yearly process is scheduled to begin this year, with the first ever global stocktake, a comprehensive assessment of countries’ progress – or lack of it.
The essential parts of the global stocktake have already been published, and they contain little of surprise. The world is far off track to meet the Paris goals, and drastic action is needed urgently in order to cut emissions in line with scientific advice.
However, one important element of the global stocktake is that it can be forward-looking – rather than just a look at what has happened, the process will also advise on what needs to be done now. Governments are not scheduled to make the next revisions to their NDCs until 2025, but the global stocktake should inform what those revisions must be.
Mitigation
Within the context of the UNFCCC, mitigation means the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.